WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans’ outlook on the economy improved modestly in November, lifted by expectations for lower inflation and more hiring.
The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index ticked up to 111.7 from 109.6 in October. The small increase followed a big gain in October.
Rising consumer confidence suggests Americans may spend more in the coming months, which would help boost economic growth. Yet Americans have been spending at a healthy clip for much of the past two years even as confidence measures have been low, a sign that sentiment surveys may not be as useful a guide to the economy's direction as they were in the past.
The uptick comes after President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. The Conference Board doesn't break out its responses by party, but another measure of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan showed that optimism about the economy jumped among Republicans after the election.
In the Conference Board's report, the proportion of Americans who anticipate a recession in the next 12 months fell to the lowest level since the group first began asking the question in July 2022. And consumers' optimism about future hiring rose to its highest level in nearly three years.
The survey found that Americans' expectations for future inflation fell to its lowest level since March 2020, nearly a year before consumer prices began rising quickly. When asked about their hopes for 2025, “consumers overwhelmingly selected higher prices as their top concern and lower prices as their top wish for the new year,” the Conference Board said.
The report comes just hours after President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose stiff 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on imports from China. Economists and some retailers warn that such duties, if enacted, would be inflationary.
“Households for now seem to have their heads in the sand about the potential uplifts to consumer prices from tariffs and deportations, or they think Trump wasn’t serious about his intentions during the campaign,” Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a client note.
Wall Street is sinking as rising pressure from the bond market pulls U.S. stocks further from their records.
The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage slipped this week to its lowest level in 10 months, but remains close to where it’s been in recent weeks. The long-term rate eased to 6.56% from 6.58% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.35%. Elevated mortgage rates have kept the U.S. housing market in a slump since early 2022, when rates began climbing from pandemic lows. The recent downward trend bodes well for prospective homebuyers who have been held back by stubbornly high home financing costs, but it has yet to spur a turnaround for home sales.
Nvidia reported a 56% increase in second-quarter revenue and a 59% rise in net income compared to a year ago.
Americans’ view of the U.S. economy declined modestly in August as anxiety over a weakening job market grew for the eighth straight month. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index ticked down by1.3 points to 97.4 in August, down from July’s 98.7, but in the same narrow range of the past three months. A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market fell by 1.2 points to 74.8, remaining significantly below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation also fell modestly, to 131.2 in August from 132.8 in July.
Low-value imports are losing their duty-free status in the U.S. this week as part of President Donald Trump's agenda for making the nation less dependent on foreign goods. A widely used customs exemption for international shipments worth $800 or less is set to end starting on Friday. Trump already ended the “de minimis” rule for inexpensive items sent from China and Hong Kong, but having to pay import taxes on small parcels from everywhere else likely will be a big change for some small businesses and online shoppers. Purchases that previously entered the U.S. without needing to clear customs will be subject to the origin country’s tariff rate, which can range from 10% to 50%.
Wall Street is rallying after the head of the Federal Reserve hinted cuts to interest rates may be coming, though he gave no clear clue about when.
Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook late Wednesday said she wouldn’t leave her post after Trump on social media called on her to resign over an accusation from one his officials that she committed mortgage fraud.
Berkshire Hathaway revealed four new investments Thursday in steelmaker Nucor, insurer UnitedHealth and two of the nation’s biggest homebuilders.
Shoppers spent at a healthy pace in July, particularly at the nation’s auto dealerships, as they appear to shrug off President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are starting to take a toll on jobs and lead to some price increases.
The U.S. stock market is climbing toward records after data suggested inflation across the country was a touch better last month than economists expected.
