WASHINGTON (AP) — Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that the Federal Reserve is becoming more convinced that inflation is headed back to its 2% target and said the Fed would cut rates before the pace of price increases actually reached that point.
“We've had three better readings, and if you average them, that's a pretty good pace," Powell said of inflation in a question-and-answer question at the Economic Club of Washington. Those figures, he said, “do add to confidence” that inflation is slowing sustainably.
Powell declined to provide any hints of when the first rate cut would occur. But most economists and investors expect the central bank to begin cutting its key rate in September from its 23-year high, though a few now envision a rate cut as early as the Fed's next meeting later this month. The futures markets expect additional rate cuts in November and December.
“Today," Powell said, “I'm not going to send any signals on any particular meeting.”
Rate reductions by the Fed would, over time, reduce consumers’ borrowing costs for things like mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards.
Last week, the government reported that consumer prices declined slightly from May to June, bringing inflation down to a year-over-year rate of 3%, from 3.3% in May. So-called “core” prices, which exclude volatile energy and food costs and often provide a better read of where inflation is likely headed, climbed 3.3% from a year earlier, below 3.4% in May.
After several high inflation readings at the start of the year had raised some concerns, Fed officials said they would need to see several months of declining price readings to be confident enough that inflation was fading sustainably toward its target level. June was the third straight month in which inflation cooled on an annual basis.
After the government’s latest encouraging inflation report Thursday, Mary Daly, president of the Fed’s San Francisco branch, signaled that rate cuts were getting closer. Daly said it was “likely that some policy adjustments will be warranted,” though she didn’t suggest any specific timing or number of rate reductions.
But in a call with reporters, Daly struck an upbeat tone, saying that June’s consumer price report showed that “we’ve got that kind of gradual reduction in inflation that we’ve been watching for and looking for, which ... is actually increasing confidence that we are on path to 2% inflation.”
Many drivers of price acceleration are slowing, solidifying the Fed’s confidence that inflation is being fully tamed after having steadily eased from a four-decade peak in 2022.
Thursday’s inflation report reflected a long-anticipated decline in rental and housing costs. Those costs had jumped in the aftermath of the pandemic as many Americans moved in search of more spacious living space to work from home.
Hiring and job openings are also cooling, thereby reducing the need for many businesses to ramp up pay in order to fill jobs. Sharply higher wages can drive up inflation if companies respond by raising prices to cover their higher labor costs.
Last week before a Senate committee, Powell noted that the job market had “cooled considerably,” and was not “a source of broad inflationary pressures for the economy.”
The mighty heft of Amazon is pulling the U.S. stock market higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% Friday, erasing some of its slump from the day before and pulling closer to its all-time high set on Tuesday. The index is on track to close a third straight winning week and a sixth straight winning month, which would be its longest monthly winning streak since 2021. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 65 points, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 1.1%. Amazon led the way after delivering a much bigger profit than analysts expected. Treasury yields eased a bit in the bond market.
President Donald Trump said he has decided to lower his combined tariff rates on imports of Chinese goods to 47% after talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on curbing fentanyl trafficking.
The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday for a second time this year as it seeks to shore up economic growth and hiring even as inflation stays elevated. The move comes amid a fraught time for the central bank, with hiring sluggish and yet inflation stuck above the Fed’s 2% target. Compounding its challenges, the central bank is navigating without much of the economic data it typically relies on from the government. The Fed has signaled it may reduce its key rate again in December but the data drought raises the uncertainty around its next moves. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that there were “strongly differing views” at the central bank's policy meeting about to proceed going forward.
The Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut its key interest rate on Wednesday and could signal it expects another cut in December as the central bank seeks to bolster hiring. A cut Wednesday would be the second this year and could benefit consumers by bringing down borrowing costs for mortgages and auto loans. Since Fed chair Jerome Powell strongly signaled in late August that rate cuts were likely this year, the average 30-year mortgage rate has fallen to about 6.2% from 6.6%. Still, the Fed is navigating an unusual period for the U.S. economy and its future moves are harder to anticipate than is typically the case.
Stocks are rallying toward more records ahead of a week packed with potentially market-moving events. The S&P 500 rose 1% Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 224 points, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.7%. Stocks also climbed in Asia ahead of a meeting on Thursday between the heads of the United States and China. The hope is that the talks could clear rising tensions between the world’s two largest economies. This upcoming week will feature profit reports from some of Wall Street's most influential companies and a meeting by the Federal Reserve on interest rates. Gold fell back toward $4,000 per ounce.
U.S. and Chinese officials say a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies is drawing closer. The sides have reached an initial consensus for President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to aim to finalize during their high-stakes meeting Thursday in South Korea. Any agreement would be a relief to international markets. Trump's treasury secretary says discussions with China yielded preliminary agreements to stop the precursor chemicals for fentanyl from coming into the United States. Scott Bessent also says Beijing would make “substantial” purchases of soybean and other agricultural products while putting off export controls on rare earth elements needed for advanced technologies.
Some seniors say the Social Security Administration's cost-of-living adjustment won’t help much in their ability to pay for their daily expenses. The agency announced Friday the annual cost-of-living adjustment will go up by 2.8% in 2026, translating to an average increase of more than $56 for retirees every month. Eighty-year-old Florence, South Carolina, resident Linda Deas says it does not match the current "affordability crisis.” The benefits increase will go into effect for Social Security recipients beginning in January. Friday’s announcement was meant to be made last week but was delayed because of the federal government shutdown. Recipients got a 2.5% COLA boost in 2025 and a 3.2% increase in 2024.
Wall Street is heading for records after an update said U.S. households are feeling a bit less pain from inflation than feared. The S&P 500 climbed 1% Friday and was on track to top its all-time high set earlier this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 529 points, and the Nasdaq composite rose 1.3%. Both are also heading toward records. The inflation data could clear the way for the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates in hopes of helping the slowing job market. A strong earnings reports from Ford Motor and continued gains for AI stars also drove stocks higher.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says that a sharp slowdown in hiring poses a growing risk to the U.S. economy.
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