The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage slipped this week to its lowest level in 10 months, but remains close to where it’s been in recent weeks.
The long-term rate eased to 6.56% from 6.58% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.35%.
Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, were unchanged from last week. The average rate held steady at 5.69%. A year ago, it was 5.51%, Freddie Mac said.
Elevated mortgage rates have added to a slump in the U.S. housing market that began in early 2022, when rates began climbing from pandemic lows.
For much of the year, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage has hovered relatively close to its 2025 high of just above 7%, set in mid-January. It’s has mostly trended lower six weeks in a row and is now at the lowest level since Oct. 24, when it averaged 6.54%.
The recent downward trend in mortgage rates bodes well for prospective homebuyers who have been held back by stubbornly high home financing costs. But it has yet to translate into a turnaround for home sales, which have remained sluggish this year after sinking in 2024 to their lowest level in nearly 30 years.
Economists generally expect the average rate on a 30-year mortgage to remain near the mid-6% range this year.
Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation.
The main barometer is the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans. The yield was at 4.21% at midday Thursday, down from 4.24% late Wednesday.
The yield has been mostly easing since mid-July as bond traders weighed data on inflation, the job market and how the potential economic impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs may influence the Fed’s interest rate policy moves.
In a high-profile speech last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank may cut rates soon even as inflation risks remain elevated.
Powell noted that there are risks of both rising unemployment and stubbornly higher inflation, and suggested that with hiring sluggish, the job market could weaken further. That could warrant the Fed adjusting its “policy stance,” he said.
The central bank has so far been hesitant to cut interest rates out of fear that Trump’s tariffs could push inflation higher, but data showing hiring slowed last month have fueled speculation that the Fed will cut its main short-term interest rate next month.
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. And while a Fed rate cut could give the job market and overall economy a boost, it could also fuel inflation. That could push bond yields higher, driving mortgage rates upward in turn.
“While the Fed is likely to cut interest rates at their September meeting, it is not at all certain that mortgage rates are going to come down,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “As a result, buyers and sellers are still going to be cautious and the market could remain gridlocked this fall.”
New data on contract signings suggest home sales could remain sluggish in the near term.
A seasonally adjusted index of pending U.S. home sales fell 0.4% in July from the previous month, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Pending home sales rose 0.7% from July last year.
There’s usually a month or two lag between a contract signing and when the sale is finalized, which makes pending home sales a bellwether for future completed home sales.
The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday for a second time this year as it seeks to shore up economic growth and hiring even as inflation stays elevated. The move comes amid a fraught time for the central bank, with hiring sluggish and yet inflation stuck above the Fed’s 2% target. Compounding its challenges, the central bank is navigating without much of the economic data it typically relies on from the government. The Fed has signaled it may reduce its key rate again in December but the data drought raises the uncertainty around its next moves. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that there were “strongly differing views” at the central bank's policy meeting about to proceed going forward.
The Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut its key interest rate on Wednesday and could signal it expects another cut in December as the central bank seeks to bolster hiring. A cut Wednesday would be the second this year and could benefit consumers by bringing down borrowing costs for mortgages and auto loans. Since Fed chair Jerome Powell strongly signaled in late August that rate cuts were likely this year, the average 30-year mortgage rate has fallen to about 6.2% from 6.6%. Still, the Fed is navigating an unusual period for the U.S. economy and its future moves are harder to anticipate than is typically the case.
Stocks are rallying toward more records ahead of a week packed with potentially market-moving events. The S&P 500 rose 1% Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 224 points, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.7%. Stocks also climbed in Asia ahead of a meeting on Thursday between the heads of the United States and China. The hope is that the talks could clear rising tensions between the world’s two largest economies. This upcoming week will feature profit reports from some of Wall Street's most influential companies and a meeting by the Federal Reserve on interest rates. Gold fell back toward $4,000 per ounce.
U.S. and Chinese officials say a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies is drawing closer. The sides have reached an initial consensus for President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to aim to finalize during their high-stakes meeting Thursday in South Korea. Any agreement would be a relief to international markets. Trump's treasury secretary says discussions with China yielded preliminary agreements to stop the precursor chemicals for fentanyl from coming into the United States. Scott Bessent also says Beijing would make “substantial” purchases of soybean and other agricultural products while putting off export controls on rare earth elements needed for advanced technologies.
Some seniors say the Social Security Administration's cost-of-living adjustment won’t help much in their ability to pay for their daily expenses. The agency announced Friday the annual cost-of-living adjustment will go up by 2.8% in 2026, translating to an average increase of more than $56 for retirees every month. Eighty-year-old Florence, South Carolina, resident Linda Deas says it does not match the current "affordability crisis.” The benefits increase will go into effect for Social Security recipients beginning in January. Friday’s announcement was meant to be made last week but was delayed because of the federal government shutdown. Recipients got a 2.5% COLA boost in 2025 and a 3.2% increase in 2024.
Wall Street is heading for records after an update said U.S. households are feeling a bit less pain from inflation than feared. The S&P 500 climbed 1% Friday and was on track to top its all-time high set earlier this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 529 points, and the Nasdaq composite rose 1.3%. Both are also heading toward records. The inflation data could clear the way for the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates in hopes of helping the slowing job market. A strong earnings reports from Ford Motor and continued gains for AI stars also drove stocks higher.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says that a sharp slowdown in hiring poses a growing risk to the U.S. economy.
Three researchers who probed the process of business innovation have won the Nobel memorial prize in economics for explaining how new products and inventions promote economic growth and human welfare, even as they leave older companies in the dust.
U.S. stocks are rising and recovering some of their sell-off from Friday. The S&P 500 climbed 1.6%.
President Donald Trump says “there seems to be no reason” to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as part of an upcoming trip to South Korea after China restricted exports of rare earths needed for American industry. The Republican president suggested Friday he was looking at a “massive increase” of import taxes on Chinese products in response to Xi’s moves. Trump says one of the policies the U.S. is calculating is "a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States." A monthslong calm on Wall Street was shattered, with U.S. stocks falling on the news. The Chinese Embassy in Washington hasn't responded to an Associated Press request for comment.
